Part of the appeal of forecasting is not just that it seems to work, but that you don’t seem to need specialized expertise to succeed at it.
The tight connection between forecasting and building a model of the world helps explain why so much of the early interest in the idea came from the intelligence community.
This was true even though the latter had access to classified intelligence.
One frequently cited study found that accurate forecasters’ predictions of geopolitical events, when aggregated using standard scientific methods, were more accurate than the forecasts of members of the US intelligence community who answered the same questions in a confidential prediction market.
The aggregated opinions of non-experts doing forecasting have proven to be a better guide to the future than the aggregated opinions of experts.
Step-by-Step Explanation
Correct Answer: 2Explanation:Statements (1), (4), (3), and (5) explain that non-experts can often make more accurate forecasts than experts. They support this idea with evidence from a study and note that experts performed worse despite having access to classified information. Statement (2) is the odd one out because it shifts the discussion to why the intelligence community became interested in forecasting, instead of continuing the comparison between experts and non-experts.
